<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" ><generator uri="https://jekyllrb.com/" version="3.10.0">Jekyll</generator><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/feed/en.xml" rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" /><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" /><updated>2026-10-19T05:16:31+03:00</updated><id>https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/feed/en.xml</id><title type="html">Orphan Problem Protocol | En</title><subtitle>Ongelmille vailla vastuunkantajaa, ideoille vailla kotia ja asioille, joita kannattaa ajatella uudelleen.</subtitle><author><name>Leima</name></author><entry xml:lang="en"><title type="html">A peace machine – revealing concessions at the same time</title><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-peace-machine-revealing-concessions-together/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="A peace machine – revealing concessions at the same time" /><published>2026-10-19T04:43:00+03:00</published><updated>2026-10-19T05:15:07+03:00</updated><id>https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-peace-machine-revealing-concessions-together</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-peace-machine-revealing-concessions-together/"><![CDATA[<p>In an argument, both people may be willing to make concessions, but neither wants to go first. One possibility would be an AI assistant that would help each person clarify their position and prepare a concession privately. Once both had approved their own messages, they would be revealed at the same time. The aim would be to make a joint conversation easier to start and find solutions without either person first having to feel they had lost.</p>

<p><em>Concept draft: the proposed mediation process is not a tested service or a promise that a dispute will be resolved.</em></p>

<h2 id="honkelas-peace-machine-sought-greater-understanding">Honkela’s peace machine sought greater understanding</h2>

<p>In his 2017 book <em>Rauhankone – tekoälytutkijan testamentti</em> (Peace Machine: An AI Researcher’s Testament), AI researcher Timo Honkela outlined technology that would help people understand one another, handle emotions, and build a more just society. One underlying observation was that people can mean different things by the same words (<a href="https://researchportal.helsinki.fi/fi/publications/rauhankone-teko%C3%A4lytutkijan-testamentti/">University of Helsinki research portal</a>).</p>

<p>The idea examined here addresses a practical conversation: could a machine help distinguish feelings, claims, and negotiation needs, and make the first concession easier? It is one possible application within the broad direction Honkela explored, not a claim to have reinvented his vision.</p>

<h2 id="first-ease-the-emotional-load-then-clarify-the-issue">First ease the emotional load, then clarify the issue</h2>

<p>The assistant would work in three stages: handling emotions, structuring the issue, and mediation. Initially, each person could describe their experience privately. The machine would help turn an attacking message into something whose underlying concern or need could be heard.</p>

<p>In an imaginary workplace situation, “you always leave everything to me” might become “I want us to agree in advance who is responsible for unfinished tasks.” The user would have to approve the interpretation. The machine must not replace their issue with an easier one merely to make the conversation appear successful.</p>

<p>The aim would be to preserve the experience while reducing unnecessary hurt. A message could also remain unfinished. Someone not yet wanting to talk must not become a problem that the machine insists on solving.</p>

<h2 id="the-machine-would-help-identify-the-actual-disagreement">The machine would help identify the actual disagreement</h2>

<p>Next, the process would distinguish claims about events, interpretations of them, and wishes for the future. Do the parties disagree about what was agreed, or about whether the agreement was fair? Is the problem workload, lack of appreciation, or unclear responsibility?</p>

<p>The assistant could raise inconsistencies and double standards as questions. If both parties demand freedom for themselves but strict rules for the other, that would be worth making visible. The machine would help examine reasoning, rather than declare someone a hypocrite or treat inferred motives as certain.</p>

<p>Agreement could also be limited. Both might accept a new division of work while retaining different experiences of the past. The service would not need to force those experiences into one narrative.</p>

<h2 id="a-concession-would-wait-until-both-people-were-ready">A concession would wait until both people were ready</h2>

<p>The distinctive element would be a joint reveal of concessions. Each person would prepare a message with the assistant that they were willing to share. The assistant would show exactly what text would be shared. Neither message would be revealed until both people had approved their own and the joint reveal.</p>

<p>A concession could acknowledge one’s actions: “It would have been better to tell you about the delay earlier.” It could also concern a future action: “I can take this task if we also agree who is responsible for the next stage.” The purpose would be to lower the barrier to making the first concession.</p>

<p>Simultaneity would not mean equal concessions or require both people to admit the same number of mistakes. A person could also withdraw before the reveal. The process would lose its purpose if the machine started extracting equal amounts of remorse from both sides.</p>

<h2 id="a-solution-could-involve-trading-different-things">A solution could involve trading different things</h2>

<p>The assistant could also seek proposals in which someone concedes on something less important to them in exchange for something more important. In an imaginary team, one person might value a flexible schedule while another wants predictable communication. Flexible working combined with an agreed progress update might provide a solution.</p>

<p>Confidentiality would be central to the design: the aim would be to avoid a permanent archive of private conversations and share nothing without approval. Implementation would require separately verified data handling. A promise in the interface would not establish this by itself.</p>

<p>A human mediator could participate. The assistant should also allow people to stop and seek help elsewhere. The goal would be an understandable, voluntary conversation, rather than agreement at any cost. An empathetic concession would be intended to express understanding; the service could not promise general legal protection for a user’s words.</p>

<h2 id="novelty-october-2026">Novelty (October 2026)</h2>

<p>Using AI to clarify messages is already a research topic, as illustrated by <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2307.16732">LLMediator</a>. The <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47306987">Ashti developer presentation</a> also describes private preparation before a joint conversation, while <a href="https://www.smartsettle.com/smartsettle-infinity">Smartsettle</a> uses confidential preferences and blind bidding in negotiations. These starting points therefore cannot be treated as this article’s novelty.</p>

<p>The article adds a specific procedure: each person privately formulates a concession, including an emotional acknowledgment, approves the exact message to be shared, and authorizes its simultaneous reveal with the other person’s message. Precisely this combination did not appear in the descriptions checked.</p>

<h2 id="scale-of-the-problem-and-potential-of-the-solution">Scale of the problem and potential of the solution</h2>

<p>In the near future, ordinary AI assistants could help formulate difficult messages. This proposal would add a shared process for the parties: private preparation, precisely approved sharing, and simultaneous first concessions.</p>

<p>The potential benefit would be a conversation that otherwise never starts, or cooperation that otherwise breaks down. Its value should be studied by asking whether both people felt understood, retained their decision-making power, and upheld any eventual agreement. Simply counting settlements could favor overly easy or pressured outcomes. These effects are not assigned a monetary price here.</p>]]></content><author><name>Leima</name></author><category term="en" /><category term="ai" /><category term="suunnittelu" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[A peace machine would help clarify a dispute and prepare concessions privately. Messages approved by both participants would be revealed together.]]></summary></entry><entry xml:lang="en"><title type="html">A prescription for your hair – take a good haircut to your next barber</title><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-prescription-for-your-hair/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="A prescription for your hair – take a good haircut to your next barber" /><published>2026-10-19T04:43:00+03:00</published><updated>2026-10-19T05:15:07+03:00</updated><id>https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-prescription-for-your-hair</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-prescription-for-your-hair/"><![CDATA[<p>A good barber gradually learns what works for your particular hair. When you change barbers, that knowledge usually does not come with you, and the explaining starts again. One possibility would be a haircut prescription that travels with the customer: a map recording the instructions for a successful cut and the particular features of their head. You could show it to a new barber much as you would take an eyeglass prescription to a new optician.</p>

<p><em>Concept draft: this proposes an open description format, not a completed standard or a tested service.</em></p>

<h2 id="a-photograph-shows-the-result-a-prescription-also-explains-how">A photograph shows the result; a prescription also explains how</h2>

<p>“A little shorter on the sides, leave more on top.” It is a familiar request, but much remains open to interpretation. How much is a little? Where does the transition from short to long begin? What happens around the cowlick?</p>

<p>A photograph would still help. The prescription would complement it by describing lengths, transitions between areas, cutting techniques, and the spots where this particular customer’s hair needs attention. A photograph of a successful result and instructions for achieving it would belong in the same package.</p>

<p>The idea is not to replace professional skill with millimetre measurements. The prescription would be a shared memory for the customer and barber. It could record failures too: no more thinning here; leave more length there next time.</p>

<h2 id="the-first-version-could-be-a-single-page">The first version could be a single page</h2>

<p>Initially, front, side, back, and top views of the head and a few clear annotations would suffice. The target length on top might be 55 millimetres, for example, with 6 millimetres on the sides. The cowlick area would carry a note to leave more length and preserve the natural growth direction.</p>

<p>These would be instructions for one imaginary haircut, not a universal recommendation. The purpose would be to describe something that works for a particular person. The meaning of the annotations would also need agreement: for instance, the target length after cutting must not be confused with the clipper guard used to achieve it.</p>

<p>After the appointment, the barber and customer could update the prescription. The next version might specify eight millimetres more on top, a slightly lower fade, and no thinning at the right front. “The same as last time” would become something that could be checked.</p>

<h2 id="a-shared-format-would-give-customers-more-choice">A shared format would give customers more choice</h2>

<p>The core would be an open file format. Customers could keep their prescriptions and take them to another service or show them on paper. Barbers would not need to read software code: an application would present the information as an understandable map and text.</p>

<p>A small common core would describe areas, lengths, transitions, and additional instructions. More detailed systems could add a three-dimensional head model, growth directions, or haircut history. An application should also say when it cannot display an important extension, so an incomplete instruction does not appear complete.</p>

<p>The standard would therefore not define everyone’s head as identical. It would provide shared names for areas and a way to describe individual differences. Professionals could still adapt the instructions and discuss what is possible.</p>

<h2 id="for-people-first-machines-later">For people first, machines later</h2>

<p>The first experiment could be a shared paper or file template used by a few barbers and customers. The key question would be whether another barber could use the instructions without a lengthy additional explanation. Only then would it make sense to increase technical precision.</p>

<p>Later, the same format could provide input for robotic haircutting. A prescription intended for humans would not, however, constitute safe machine instructions on its own: a device would need its own interpretation, measurements, and safety limits. A common description could connect systems even when their implementations differed.</p>

<h2 id="an-open-prescription-would-still-leave-room-for-paid-tools">An open prescription would still leave room for paid tools</h2>

<p>The basic prescription format and a reference reader could be published openly. Paid editors, salon customer systems, or services converting different systems’ annotations into the common format could still be built around it. Customers would not be buying permission to use their own haircut; professionals would pay for tools that made their work easier.</p>

<p>An experiment would therefore not need to begin with an agreement across the entire industry. One salon could issue prescriptions that customers could show elsewhere. The common format would become more useful as others learned to read and update it. It would nevertheless have to earn its usefulness in practice: if filling out a prescription takes longer than interviewing a new customer, openness alone will not make it attractive.</p>

<h2 id="novelty-october-2026">Novelty (October 2026)</h2>

<p>A personal haircut prescription is not a new idea. For example, the <a href="https://builder.aws.com/content/39o9xi0S7y7BJm33PD8fmdtaim0/aideas-grum-never-get-a-bad-haircut-again">GRÜM concept</a> describes a portable haircut passport with a recipe, while the <a href="https://haircuthistory.com/">HairCut History product page</a> describes measurements by area and sharing with another barber. The former presents a concept under development and the latter describes a product; their effectiveness has not been tested here.</p>

<p>This article adds a distinction between the prescription and an individual application: could a haircut be described in an open, interoperable format that different services and eventually devices could read? The sources checked did not describe precisely such a shared standard.</p>

<h2 id="scale-of-the-problem-and-potential-of-the-solution">Scale of the problem and potential of the solution</h2>

<p>Even without a new standard, customer records, photographs, and AI-organized notes could make cuts easier to repeat. The additional benefit of an open format would be keeping the information usable when changing services, barbers, and potentially equipment manufacturers.</p>

<p>It could reduce explaining and uncertainty and make trying a new barber easier. Schools and software developers could also build different tools on the same foundation. The first measure of success would nevertheless be ordinary: did the new barber understand the prescription, and did it help produce the haircut the customer meant?</p>]]></content><author><name>Leima</name></author><category term="en" /><category term="suunnittelu" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[An open haircut prescription could travel with the customer between barbers, recording lengths, growth patterns, and the techniques that worked.]]></summary></entry><entry xml:lang="en"><title type="html">A robot ferry could turn water into a shortcut</title><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-robot-ferry-could-turn-water-into-a-shortcut/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="A robot ferry could turn water into a shortcut" /><published>2026-10-19T04:43:00+03:00</published><updated>2026-10-19T05:15:07+03:00</updated><id>https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-robot-ferry-could-turn-water-into-a-shortcut</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-robot-ferry-could-turn-water-into-a-shortcut/"><![CDATA[<p>The opposite shore is visible from your window, but driving there requires a long detour. One possibility would be a network of small electric robot ferries carrying groceries, parcels, and tools over short water crossings. The vessels would not need to operate in every weather or throughout the year. They would provide inexpensive shortcuts when conditions were good enough and remain docked otherwise.</p>

<p><em>Concept draft: the vessel, routes, and costs have not been designed or tested. The calculation below is an imaginary comparison scenario.</em></p>

<h2 id="a-limited-service-instead-of-a-perfect-ferry">A limited service instead of a perfect ferry</h2>

<p>The idea starts with the service commitment. A small water shortcut would not be intended to replace a bridge, a year-round island ferry, or an essential transport service that must work in difficult weather. A limited service could suspend operations proactively.</p>

<p>That could allow a simpler and cheaper implementation. Savings would nevertheless not follow merely from calling the vessel a robot. Working docks, charging, cargo handling, maintenance, and a way to assist a vessel in trouble would also be necessary.</p>

<p>The first application would be goods transport. Passenger transport could be investigated separately later. A successful cargo route would not itself establish that the same vessel or operating model was suitable for passengers.</p>

<h2 id="one-vessel-could-serve-several-needs">One vessel could serve several needs</h2>

<p>In the morning, the vessel could deliver groceries to an island collection dock. Its return trip could carry a fisher’s catch or small consignments. Later, the same capacity could carry tools, spare parts, or farming supplies.</p>

<p>Shared use would matter because a vessel waiting for just one infrequent task might see too little activity. Orders would need combining so transport remained useful without every customer requiring an individual departure. An inexpensive water route does not help if getting goods to the dock costs more than the entire road detour.</p>

<p>The network could be based on a common vessel design and similar docks, charging points, and remote supervision. Each additional route would still need a local assessment. A short distance on a map says little about waves, other traffic, or cargo handling arrangements.</p>

<h2 id="stopping-safely-would-be-part-of-the-service">Stopping safely would be part of the service</h2>

<p>An autonomous or remotely supervised vessel would need predefined responses to deteriorating weather, communication loss, and technical failure. When is a departure cancelled, where does an interrupted vessel go, and who attends when needed? These would be basic service questions.</p>

<p>Users should be told clearly when the route is available and what the alternative is. If the purpose is to make daily life easier, waiting for an uncertain delivery must not create another inconvenience. Limited availability could be acceptable if understood in advance.</p>

<h2 id="tesla-considered-remotely-controlled-goods-transport-back-in-1898">Tesla considered remotely controlled goods transport back in 1898</h2>

<p>A historical predecessor reaches surprisingly far back. Nikola Tesla demonstrated his radio-controlled boat in New York in 1898 (<a href="https://tesla-museum.org/en/qr-en/exhibit-049/">Nikola Tesla Museum</a>). It was a boat, rather than an autonomous robot ferry of the kind envisioned here.</p>

<p>Similar applications are not even purely speculative: <a href="https://patents.google.com/patent/US613809A/en">Tesla’s patent US613809A</a> mentions carrying letters, packages, provisions, and other goods, as well as reaching inaccessible regions. He therefore considered practical transport tasks for remote control too.</p>

<p>Was Tesla also contemplating something like a network of small water shortcuts? These sources do not tell us, but it is an intriguing possibility to consider. Perhaps today’s opportunity is to turn an old transport vision into an everyday service using contemporary technology. This comparison is speculation, not a claim about Tesla’s plans.</p>

<h2 id="novelty-october-2026">Novelty (October 2026)</h2>

<p>Autonomous electric vessels and their use for goods transport have already been researched and trialled. A close counterpart is Japan’s <a href="https://smartisland.mlit.go.jp/demo/33island/">Smart Island trial</a>, which combined grocery and passenger transport and tested remote supervision. The <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.10220">Roboat II study</a> also examines an autonomous vessel for urban waterways. This is therefore neither new vessel technology nor an entirely new transport idea.</p>

<p>This article adds a particular scope: which small cargo routes could use common equipment if the service did not have to operate year-round or in every condition? Its contribution is to clarify an operating model and the conditions for its viability.</p>

<h2 id="scale-of-the-problem-and-potential-of-the-solution">Scale of the problem and potential of the solution</h2>

<p>The comparison is not a world in which transport continues unchanged forever. Electric cars, combined deliveries, and existing water services can already reduce costs. A robot ferry’s additional benefit would be only the remaining detour its route actually eliminates beyond those improvements.</p>

<h3 id="an-imaginary-route-would-avoid-80000200000-road-kilometres">An imaginary route would avoid 80,000–200,000 road kilometres</h3>

<p>Suppose a route operates on 200 days a year and replaces 20–50 separate road journeys daily. Assume each replacement removes 20 kilometres after accounting for trips to docks and onward delivery. These are scenario assumptions for the calculation, not observations about an identified route or demand.</p>

<p>Avoided driving would then be <strong>200 × 20–50 × 20 = 80,000–200,000 kilometres annually</strong>. The calculation requires journeys genuinely disappearing: if groceries would already travel in one delivery van, they cannot be counted as separate car trips.</p>

<h3 id="financial-benefits-would-depend-on-local-costs">Financial benefits would depend on local costs</h3>

<p>Avoided kilometres cannot be converted into universally applicable monetary savings using one country’s reimbursement rate. The monetary counterpart would be locally avoided driving costs minus the full annual cost of the water service. This would include capital costs for the vessel and docks, energy, supervision, maintenance, insurance, and cargo handling. A car’s fixed costs would not necessarily disappear alongside the driving.</p>

<p>Adequate cost data for a specific route are unavailable here, so no figure is assigned to net savings or a payback period. The biggest source of uncertainty is how many separate detours would actually disappear. Operating days and human labor requirements could also change the result completely. The first assessment should examine one route, count actual deliveries, and obtain implementation cost estimates. A global monetary figure would offer false precision at this stage.</p>

<h3 id="new-activity-could-emerge-where-transport-currently-prevents-it">New activity could emerge where transport currently prevents it</h3>

<p>Beyond savings, a water shortcut could enable things not currently done: delivering a small harvest to a buyer, sharing a tool across the water, or extending a service to an island. These would be new opportunities and must not be counted again as avoided car journeys.</p>

<p>Water could thereby become a connection rather than a barrier in daily life. The key would be finding locations where a short crossing, sufficient use, and a manageable service commitment coincide. One vessel would not need to transform all transport if it made one useful shortcut work.</p>]]></content><author><name>Leima</name></author><category term="en" /><category term="suunnittelu" /><category term="talous" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[A small electric robot ferry could replace a long road detour, carrying goods across the water whenever conditions allow safe operation.]]></summary></entry><entry xml:lang="en"><title type="html">A browser could stop accidental taps on jumping pages</title><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-browser-could-stop-accidental-taps-on-jumping-pages/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="A browser could stop accidental taps on jumping pages" /><published>2026-10-19T04:28:00+03:00</published><updated>2026-10-19T04:35:31+03:00</updated><id>https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-browser-could-stop-accidental-taps-on-jumping-pages</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/19/a-browser-could-stop-accidental-taps-on-jumping-pages/"><![CDATA[<p>You are about to tap a link when an ad appears and the page jumps. Your finger lands where the link was a moment ago, but the browser opens something else. I propose a browser safeguard that recognizes this situation and discards the suspicious tap. The user lifts their finger and tries again once the content has settled.</p>

<p><em>Concept draft: this is an implementation proposal whose effectiveness and thresholds still need testing.</em></p>

<h2 id="the-browser-could-notice-a-target-changing-under-your-finger">The browser could notice a target changing under your finger</h2>

<p>The idea is simple: a tap should not be treated as a definite expression of intent if its target changed just before contact. The user decided to tap one thing, but the page replaced it with another.</p>

<p>The safeguard would operate in the browser, so using it would not require every website to be fixed separately. An initial experiment could use a Chromium-based browser for Android. Chromium is an open-source browser project on which such a change could be built.</p>

<h2 id="remember-what-was-visible-a-moment-ago">Remember what was visible a moment ago</h2>

<p>The browser would keep a short history of movements in visible content. When a finger touches the screen, it would check whether content at that point had just moved significantly and whether the actionable target there had changed.</p>

<p>The notes suggest an initial window of 50–100 milliseconds. If the same point contained link A 20 milliseconds ago but now contains button B, the tap could be discarded. These numbers are starting points for an experiment, not research-established limits of human perception.</p>

<p>Movement alone would not be sufficient. If the same link moves a few pixels but the finger still hits it, blocking the tap would only be inconvenient. The deciding factor would be a changed target combined with a sufficiently recent and substantial movement.</p>

<h2 id="a-discarded-tap-would-not-run-later">A discarded tap would not run later</h2>

<p>In a suspicious situation, the browser would neither open either target nor queue the tap for later. The user would lift their finger and tap again. The new tap would be accepted normally if the content had settled.</p>

<p>The browser could also provide subtle feedback: the touch was registered, but the target moved, so the action was not performed. For example, a brief visual cue, vibration, or an explanation when needed could distinguish this from a device failing to notice the touch at all. The appropriate feedback would need testing so that the safeguard did not become a distraction itself.</p>

<p>A false alarm would still force the user to try again. An experiment would need to measure both prevented accidental taps and legitimate taps blocked unnecessarily, as well as whether users understood the feedback. The safeguard would be useful only if it removed more inconvenience than it created.</p>

<h2 id="the-same-idea-could-extend-to-the-android-interface">The same idea could extend to the Android interface</h2>

<p>The browser would be the first experimental setting, but eventually the safeguard could also be explored at the Android interface level. A phone manufacturer, for example, could test it in its own interface version, potentially extending the idea from websites to system screens and possibly applications.</p>

<p>This is a possible development direction, not a claim that the browser solution could be transferred unchanged to the entire phone. A broader implementation would require a separate investigation into detecting target movement and handling taps across different screens. The principle and user feedback could nevertheless remain the same.</p>

<h2 id="novelty">Novelty</h2>

<p>I searched for related work using terms including <em>layout shift accidental clicks</em>, <em>recently moved iframe</em>, and <em>browser click stability</em>. The problem and part of the solution are already well known. Three close counterparts help define what this proposal actually adds.</p>

<h3 id="chromium-already-has-a-limited-safeguard">Chromium already has a limited safeguard</h3>

<p>A <a href="https://groups.google.com/a/chromium.org/g/blink-dev/c/58JoaBbCao0">2023 announcement from Chromium developers</a> describes discarding input events for recently moved cross-origin iframes. The announcement expanded an earlier, more limited safeguard. Blocking a tap because of movement is therefore not itself a new invention.</p>

<h3 id="page-movement-can-already-be-measured">Page movement can already be measured</h3>

<p>Google’s <a href="https://web.dev/articles/cls">CLS guide</a> discusses unexpected content shifts and the incorrect clicks they cause. CLS measures page stability. It helps identify the problem, but measurement does not itself define the proposed general tap safeguard.</p>

<p>The <a href="https://wicg.github.io/layout-instability/">Layout Instability specification</a> includes previous and current rectangles for shifted elements. This provides an implementation starting point. A complete history of which actionable target occupied each screen point would nevertheless require additional implementation work. A log of shifts alone is not a finished solution.</p>

<h3 id="test-automation-already-waits-for-stable-targets">Test automation already waits for stable targets</h3>

<p>The browser testing tool <a href="https://playwright.dev/docs/actionability">Playwright</a> checks target stability, among other conditions, before a normal automated click. It defines stability as an unchanged bounding box for at least two consecutive animation frames. A testing tool waits on behalf of an automated action; this proposal protects a tap that a human has already initiated.</p>

<p>The proposed addition is therefore a broader safeguard for ordinary links and buttons that accounts for target changes. These searches did not uncover a general implementation matching the notes exactly. That does not establish that none exists.</p>

<h2 id="scale-of-the-problem-and-potential-of-the-solution">Scale of the problem and potential of the solution</h2>

<p>The benefit would come from avoiding wrong pages, navigating back, and trying again. A global monetary figure would nevertheless require evidence about the frequency of accidental taps, their cost, and the share this safeguard could actually prevent. There is insufficient basis for those estimates here.</p>

<p>The comparison is a near future in which website developers improve stability and browsers already have limited safeguards. The idea’s additional value would be preventing remaining errors even on sites whose implementation users cannot influence. It would not fix the jumping page itself.</p>

<h3 id="a-small-improvement-could-add-up-to-a-large-effect">A small improvement could add up to a large effect</h3>

<p>The significance would extend beyond seconds saved. If a phone less often did something other than what its user intended, it could reduce digital frustration and make smartphone use smoother and more approachable. Clear feedback would also help users understand what the device did and why.</p>

<p>A single corrected tap is a small thing. If the improvement recurred in the daily lives of a large group of users, even a minor change could have a substantial overall effect. It would both reduce existing inconvenience and potentially make handling tasks on a phone feel worthwhile to more people. The scale of that effect would need to be established in use, rather than inferred from user numbers alone.</p>

<p>Such a safeguard could also make difficult sites more usable for people who find repeated precise targeting challenging. This is a possible further application, not a demonstrated accessibility benefit. Evaluating it would require testing with different users and sites: when is trying again a small relief, and when does it become another barrier?</p>]]></content><author><name>Leima</name></author><category term="en" /><category term="suunnittelu" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[A browser safeguard could stop accidental taps when page content jumps under your finger. How would it work, and what already exists?]]></summary></entry><entry xml:lang="en"><title type="html">An appeals CAPTCHA: appealing stays free, but not a hundred times over</title><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/an-appeals-captcha/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="An appeals CAPTCHA: appealing stays free, but not a hundred times over" /><published>2026-10-03T04:19:21+03:00</published><updated>2026-10-03T04:19:21+03:00</updated><id>https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/an-appeals-captcha</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/an-appeals-captcha/"><![CDATA[<p>Websites often give you a small task, such as spotting the traffic lights in
a set of pictures. For a person it takes a second, but for a machine trying
to log in thousands of times it is a brake. I propose the same idea for
appealing against decisions made by public authorities. When someone files an
unusually large number of appeals, each one would have to be confirmed in
person with an official, on site or over a video call, explaining in their
own words which decision they are appealing and why. For one genuine appeal
that is a small effort; for a hundred copies it is enormous. Unlike an appeal
fee, it does not put people with little money at a disadvantage, because the
price is paid in time rather than money.</p>

<h2 id="making-mass-appeals-scale-badly">Making mass appeals scale badly</h2>

<p>The idea is to add a small personal task to filing an appeal: easy to do once
in a genuine matter but heavy to repeat dozens or hundreds of times. The goal
is not to prevent appeals. The goal is to make mass appeals scale badly: the
right to appeal remains, but automating appeals and copying them on an
industrial scale becomes laborious.</p>

<p>In short: <em>no fee for appealing, but an individual effort required from a
human.</em></p>

<h2 id="how-the-confirmation-would-work">How the confirmation would work</h2>

<h3 id="the-appellant-specifies-the-matter-to-an-official-in-their-own-words">The appellant specifies the matter to an official in their own words</h3>

<p>The appeal is confirmed in person with an official, either on site or
remotely. In their own words, the appellant states</p>

<ul>
  <li>which decision they are appealing,</li>
  <li>what change they are demanding and</li>
  <li>why they believe that particular decision is wrong.</li>
</ul>

<p>Every appeal needs its own confirmation. A single generic text cannot be
copied into hundreds of cases, and strong electronic identification prevents
anyone from gaming the system with different accounts.</p>

<h3 id="an-ordinary-appellant-faces-no-extra-effort">An ordinary appellant faces no extra effort</h3>

<p>The confirmation would only switch on when an unusually large number of
appeals comes from the same person. An ordinary appellant who appeals once or
twice in their own matter would never notice the system.</p>

<h3 id="the-cost-is-time-not-money">The cost is time, not money</h3>

<p>The “price” is primarily time and personal participation. The advantage over
an advance fee is that a person with little money is not inherently worse
off: everyone has the same number of hours in a day, but not the same amount
of money.</p>

<h3 id="a-remote-option-is-essential">A remote option is essential</h3>

<p>In-person visits alone would be a problem for, say, people with mobility
impairments, people living in remote areas and people abroad. That is why
an accessible remote option must be part of it.</p>

<h2 id="why-this-matters-right-now">Why this matters right now</h2>

<p>The Finnish government is currently preparing measures against unfounded
appeals. In September 2026 Minister of Justice Leena Meri said that an advance
fee is being prepared for limited administrative court cases that do not
concern the appellant’s own matter, along with a penalty fee for abuse of
court proceedings
(<a href="https://www.verkkouutiset.fi/a/aiheettomat-valitukset-halutaan-kuriin/">Verkkouutiset</a>).
Back in January, ministers launched a study that looks at, among other
things, raising the fees of the administrative courts and the Supreme
Administrative Court
(<a href="https://valtioneuvosto.fi/-/1410853/ministerit-meri-ikonen-ja-multala-kaynnistavat-selvityksen-aiheettomien-valituksien-ehkaisemisesta">Finnish Government</a>).
An appeals CAPTCHA is an alternative to precisely these money-based measures.</p>

<p>The problem is not new. As early as 2014, the news reported how one person
had kept the city of Rovaniemi and the courts busy with more than 50 appeals,
complaints and lawsuits
(<a href="https://www.verkkouutiset.fi/a/kaupunki-yhden-ihmisen-valitusten-kourissa-yli-50-oikeusprosessia-28244/">Verkkouutiset</a>).</p>

<h2 id="novelty">Novelty</h2>

<p>I searched with terms such as (in Finnish) <em>mass appeals</em>, <em>unfounded
appeals</em>, <em>serial appellant</em>, and <em>vexatious litigant</em>, <em>proof of work spam</em>,
<em>mass comments fake identities</em> and <em>in-person verification appeal</em>.</p>

<h3 id="computational-work-against-spam-is-an-old-idea">Computational work against spam is an old idea</h3>

<p>In 1993 Cynthia Dwork and Moni Naor proposed that an email sender should
perform a small computational task that is cheap for one message but
expensive for a million. Adam Back’s Hashcash implemented the same thing in
1997 (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proof_of_work">Wikipedia</a>). An appeals
CAPTCHA is the same principle, but instead of machine computation the cost is
human time, which cannot be bought in bulk with a graphics card.</p>

<h3 id="restricting-vexatious-litigants-today-happens-after-the-fact">Restricting vexatious litigants today happens after the fact</h3>

<p>In England and Wales a court can declare a person a vexatious litigant, after
which they need a judge’s permission for every new proceeding
(<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/declaring-a-litigant-vexatious-and-the-treasury-solititor/guidance-note-vexatious-litigants-and-the-treasury-solicitor">GOV.UK</a>).
That is a heavy, individually targeted and public label, given only after a
long process. An appeals CAPTCHA would instead switch on automatically based
on volume and would not require anyone to declare the appellant a nuisance.</p>

<h3 id="mass-commenting-is-a-threat-that-has-already-materialised">Mass commenting is a threat that has already materialised</h3>

<p>In 2017 the US Federal Communications Commission received more than 22
million comments on net neutrality, of which nearly 18 million were fake
according to the New York Attorney General. One 19-year-old used software to
submit 9.3 million comments under made-up names
(<a href="https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2021/attorney-general-james-issues-report-detailing-millions-fake-comments-revealing">New York Attorney General</a>).</p>

<h3 id="the-difference-in-person-confirmation-triggered-by-volume-paid-in-time">The difference: in-person confirmation triggered by volume, paid in time</h3>

<p>I found no model in which an appeal must be confirmed with an official in
one’s own words only once the same person’s number of appeals exceeds a
threshold. The closest equivalents are paid for with money (court fees, the
planned advance fee), with machine computation (Hashcash), or targeted at an
individual through a heavy court decision (vexatious litigant orders). The
novelty lies between these: a cost that triggers automatically, is the same
for everyone and is hard to bypass with AI.</p>

<h2 id="theoretical-value">Theoretical value</h2>

<h3 id="without-the-idea-ai-makes-appeals-cheap-and-fees-become-common">Without the idea, AI makes appeals cheap and fees become common</h3>

<p>In the next few years AI will make writing an individual-looking appeal
almost free. A written requirement to “explain in your own words” will
therefore no longer, on its own, separate a genuine appellant from a mass
appellant, but a conversation with an official does so better. At the same
time Finland is introducing advance fees and penalty fees. The baseline is
thus a situation where mass appeals are fought with money. The idea’s value
is how much more it stops and how much less it harms people with little
money.</p>

<h3 id="fermi-estimate-roughly-20-million--13-billion-a-year">Fermi estimate: roughly $20 million – $1.3 billion a year</h3>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th>Factor</th>
      <th>Value</th>
      <th>Source</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>Cases received by Finnish administrative courts (2024)</td>
      <td>19,215</td>
      <td><a href="https://www.sttinfo.fi/tiedote/70955986/tuomioistuinlaitoksen-tilinpaatos-2024-henkilostoresursseja-lisattiin-mutta-samaan-aikaan-asiamaarat-kasvoivat?lang=fi">STT Info / Finnish courts</a></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Cost per resolved case, Helsinki Administrative Court (2025)</td>
      <td>€1,395</td>
      <td><a href="https://www.tuomioistuimet.fi/material/sites/oikeus_hallintooikeudet_helsinginhallinto-oikeus/dokumentit/ripk25utc/Helsingin_HAO_toimintakertomus_2025_FINAL.pdf">Helsinki Administrative Court</a></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Share of mass and serial appeals</td>
      <td>2–5%</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Idea’s additional effect on top of fees</td>
      <td>20–50%</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Cost of delayed projects in Finland</td>
      <td>€1–10 million / year</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Multiplier for other wealthy democracies</td>
      <td>50–200</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Euro to dollar</td>
      <td>€1 ≈ $1.15</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<ul>
  <li><strong>Court work:</strong> 19,215 × 2–5% ≈ 380–960 cases × €1,395 ≈ €0.5–1.3
million. 20–50% of that is €0.1–0.7 million.</li>
  <li><strong>Project delays:</strong> €1–10 million × 20–50% ≈ €0.2–5 million.</li>
  <li><strong>The cost of confirmations</strong> is small, because they only apply to those
above the threshold: a few hundred half-hour meetings cost under €0.1
million.</li>
  <li><strong>Finland in total:</strong> roughly €0.3–5.7 million, or about $0.35–6.5 million.</li>
  <li><strong>Worldwide</strong>, with a multiplier of 50–200: roughly <strong>$20 million – $1.3
billion a year</strong>.</li>
</ul>

<p>This excludes what the idea saves people with little money compared with
fees, and the protection it gives authorities against AI-generated floods of
appeals, which could be much larger than today’s.</p>

<h3 id="what-moves-it-most-is-how-large-the-ai-appeal-flood-becomes">What moves it most is how large the AI appeal flood becomes</h3>

<p>This is an order-of-magnitude estimate, not a forecast. The biggest
uncertainties are the cost of delays and whether mass appeals multiply with
AI. If mass appeals stay at today’s level and fees work well, the idea’s added
value stays at the low end of the range. If they grow like the FCC comment
flood, money is no longer enough of a brake, and the value of a confirmation
based on human time rises above the top of the range.</p>]]></content><author><name>Leima</name></author><category term="en" /><category term="hallinto" /><category term="ai" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[Websites often give you a small task, such as spotting the traffic lights in a set of pictures. For a person it takes a second, but for a machine trying to log in thousands of times it is a brake. I propose the same idea for appealing against decisions made by public authorities. When someone files an unusually large number of appeals, each one would have to be confirmed in person with an official, on site or over a video call, explaining in their own words which decision they are appealing and why. For one genuine appeal that is a small effort; for a hundred copies it is enormous. Unlike an appeal fee, it does not put people with little money at a disadvantage, because the price is paid in time rather than money.]]></summary></entry><entry xml:lang="en"><title type="html">A general offence of spiteful harassment: a draft for the Finnish Criminal Code</title><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/a-general-offence-of-spiteful-harassment/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="A general offence of spiteful harassment: a draft for the Finnish Criminal Code" /><published>2026-10-03T04:16:00+03:00</published><updated>2026-10-03T04:39:51+03:00</updated><id>https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/a-general-offence-of-spiteful-harassment</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/a-general-offence-of-spiteful-harassment/"><![CDATA[<p>The law today punishes stalking, threats and spreading lies, but stalking
requires that the same person is harassed repeatedly. What slips through is
harassment where each victim gets their share only once. Picture a video
maker who goes out to embarrass, startle or provoke strangers on camera,
hundreds or thousands of times, and earns ad money from the videos. None of
the victims has been stalked, yet harassment is the whole business model. I
propose a new, general offence of spiteful harassment: it would be a crime to
act in a way whose clear main purpose is to torment someone else and which
has no other sensible purpose, even if it targets each person only once. Making money from the harassment
would not be a defence; if anything, it would make the act worse. At the same
time, ordinary criticism, journalism and satire must be clearly excluded so
the law does not become a muzzle on free speech.</p>

<p><em>This is an unfinished working draft: the statutory text is a sketch, not a
polished proposal.</em></p>

<h2 id="punishability-must-not-depend-on-the-platform-or-the-money">Punishability must not depend on the platform or the money</h2>

<p>If the goal is specifically a general harassment offence that also covers
harassment done for profit, for example on YouTube, the provision should be
worded so that punishability does not depend on the platform or on whether
the perpetrator earns money from it. Commercial gain would instead be an
explicit aggravating factor.</p>

<h3 id="the-principle-of-legality-demands-precision">The principle of legality demands precision</h3>

<p>In Finland such a provision has to be quite precise because of the principle
of legality in criminal law: punishable behaviour must be foreseeable from
the law. That is why the current Criminal Code defines, for example, stalking
and defamation through concrete acts and effects. Stalking covers someone who
<em>repeatedly threatens, follows, monitors, contacts or in some comparable way
unlawfully stalks another</em> so that it is likely to cause fear or distress
(Criminal Code 25:7 a, <a href="https://www.minilex.fi/node/59735">Minilex</a>).
Harassment that does not frighten but annoys, humiliates and obstructs does
not always fit.</p>

<p>The Supreme Court has also held that not all feedback, however forceful, for
example to public officials, is punishable, and that stalking requires
repeated acts aimed at the same person
(<a href="https://jyx.jyu.fi/handle/123456789/80996">KKO 2022:9, commentary</a>).
A one-off act is therefore not stalking, even if the perpetrator repeats the
same stunt on hundreds of different people. This is exactly the gap the
draft is meant to fill.</p>

<h2 id="draft-spiteful-harassment">Draft: Spiteful harassment</h2>

<blockquote>
  <p><strong>Spiteful harassment</strong></p>

  <p>A person who intentionally acts towards another person in a manner</p>

  <ol>
    <li>whose main purpose, clearly apparent from the circumstances, is to cause
that person harm, trouble, disturbance, humiliation, distress or another
comparable negative consequence,</li>
    <li>which, assessed as a whole, has no other significant, acceptable and
independent purpose, and</li>
    <li>which, considering its triviality or other circumstances, cannot be regarded as ordinary or tolerable conduct
belonging to human interaction,</li>
  </ol>

  <p>shall be sentenced for spiteful harassment to a fine.</p>

  <p>Spiteful harassment may include, in particular, embarrassing, startling or
provoking another person, repeated contact, following, disturbing, making pointless reports or demands, systematically
obstructing the other person’s activities, or producing, publishing or
distributing material concerning them, if the conduct meets the conditions
in subsection 1. A single act may suffice.</p>

  <p>The commercial nature of the conduct, the financial gain derived from it or
the gaining of an audience through it does not constitute an acceptable
purpose if the main content or purpose of the activity is harassing another
person as referred to in subsection 1.</p>

  <p>When assessing the purpose of the conduct, particular account shall be
taken of the content of the acts, whether the perpetrator has acted in the
same way towards several different people, the recording of the acts for
publication, the repetition of the acts, the perpetrator’s previous
conduct, the perpetrator’s statements about their purpose, and whether the conduct had a
genuine purpose independent of the harassment.</p>

  <p>Spiteful harassment does not, however, include justified criticism,
expressing opinions, satire, journalism, scientific or artistic activity,
consumer feedback, use of legal remedies, a justified report to an
authority, or other exercise of a fundamental right or legal right, unless
the form of activity is evidently used merely as a pretext for harassment.</p>

  <p>If a more severe penalty for the act is provided elsewhere in law, that
provision shall apply primarily.</p>
</blockquote>

<h2 id="ad-revenue-does-not-make-harassment-acceptable">Ad revenue does not make harassment acceptable</h2>

<p>The subsection on commercial activity would matter precisely in YouTube,
TikTok, podcast and streaming cases. It would not be enough as a defence to
say: “I make these videos to get views and ad revenue.” If the actual concept
of the videos is deliberately harassing strangers on camera, the commercial
motive
would not turn it into an acceptable purpose.</p>

<h3 id="a-critical-video-is-not-a-crime-because-it-makes-money">A critical video is not a crime because it makes money</h3>

<p>At the same time, an ordinary critical YouTube video would not be a crime
merely because its maker earns money from it. If the video has a genuine
journalistic, societal, entertainment, critical or other independent purpose,
the offence would in principle not be made out. This exception matters for
free speech. The current defamation provision also explicitly protects
criticism of another person’s conduct in, for example, politics, business,
public office, science or art that does not clearly exceed what is acceptable
(Criminal Code 24:9, subsection 2,
<a href="https://www.minilex.fi/a/rikoslaki-ja-kunnianloukkaus">Minilex</a>).</p>

<h2 id="next-step-a-basic-and-an-aggravated-form">Next step: a basic and an aggravated form</h2>

<p>A more workable legal model would split the offence into basic spiteful
harassment and aggravated spiteful harassment. In the aggravated form, for
example, systematic commercial harassment, a large number of victims, a large
audience or substantial financial gain could raise the maximum penalty from a fine to
imprisonment.</p>

<h2 id="open-questions-can-the-target-avoid-it-and-is-online-different">Open questions: can the target avoid it, and is online different?</h2>

<p>Two more angles could be added to the draft:</p>

<ul>
  <li><strong>Can the target avoid the situation?</strong> The factors to be assessed could
include whether the person harassed had a reasonable chance to avoid the
conduct. You can block messages, but you cannot make videos about yourself
disappear, and you cannot move out of your own home because of a
neighbour’s spite.</li>
  <li><strong>Online versus in-person harassment.</strong> The law could address separately
how harassment online differs from harassment elsewhere, for example in
audience size, permanence of the material and how it spreads.</li>
</ul>

<h2 id="novelty">Novelty</h2>

<p>I searched for counterparts in the laws of Finland, the other Nordic
countries, France and Germany and in Finnish legislative drafting, using
terms such as <em>kiusanteko rikos</em>, <em>maalittaminen rikoslaki</em>, <em>hensynsløs
atferd</em>, <em>harcèlement moral en ligne</em> and <em>Schikaneverbot</em>.</p>

<h3 id="norway-already-has-a-very-similar-general-provision">Norway already has a very similar general provision</h3>

<p>The closest counterpart is <strong>section 266 of the Norwegian Penal Code</strong>
(<em>hensynsløs atferd</em>, reckless conduct): anyone who by frightening or
annoying behaviour or other reckless conduct pursues another person or
otherwise violates another’s peace is liable to a fine or up to two years’
imprisonment (<a href="https://www.ung.no/oss/DGk37CFLCvf1wUsvK3CAP8">ung.no</a>). In
September 2025 the Norwegian Supreme Court upheld a conviction under the
section for a Facebook post meant to damage another person’s professional
standing
(<a href="https://www.domstol.no/globalassets/upload/hret/avgjorelser/2025/september/hr-2025-1726.pdf">HR-2025-1726-A</a>).
So a general harassment offence is not unheard of in the Nordics. The
Norwegian section, however, lacks two key parts of the draft: an explicit
rule that a commercial motive is not an acceptable purpose, and a list of
protected forms of activity.</p>

<h3 id="france-addresses-online-harassment-germany-the-sole-purpose">France addresses online harassment, Germany the “sole purpose”</h3>

<ul>
  <li><strong>Article 222-33-2-2 of the French Penal Code</strong> punishes repeated
harassment that degrades the victim’s living conditions. Committing it
online is an aggravating factor, and a concerted “raid” by several people
counts as harassment even if no one acts repeatedly on their own
(<a href="https://lagbd.org/Cyber_harcelement_et_action_penale">LAGBD</a>). This
matches the draft’s open question about the online dimension, but does
not deal with commercial motives. The draft’s situation is also its mirror
image: one perpetrator and many victims, each encountered only once.</li>
  <li><strong>Section 226 of the German Civil Code</strong> (<em>Schikaneverbot</em>) prohibits
exercising a right if its only possible purpose is to harm another
(<a href="https://www.buzer.de/226_BGB.htm">buzer.de</a>). The idea of “no other
acceptable purpose” is therefore old, but in civil law, not criminal law.</li>
</ul>

<p>In Finland, recent legislative work has focused on, among other things,
coercive control in close relationships
(<a href="https://www.verkkouutiset.fi/a/rikoslakiin-pitaisi-lisata-vainoamisen-rinnalle-uusi-rikosnimike-ehdottaa-selvitys/">Verkkouutiset 2023</a>,
<a href="https://www.eduskunta.fi/pdf/LA+35/2025">LA 35/2025</a>). I did not find a
Finnish proposal for a general harassment offence. Nor did I find a provision
in any country that states directly that ad revenue or an audience gained
from harassment does not make it acceptable. The novelty lies precisely in
this commercial rule and in combining it with a Norwegian-style general
provision that has a purpose test precise enough for Finnish law and a free
speech exception, and in the draft explicitly covering serial one-off
harassment of different people. The search for counterparts was originally
done from the angle of long-running harassment, so I have not separately
searched other countries for provisions on serial one-off harassment.</p>

<h2 id="theoretical-value">Theoretical value</h2>

<h3 id="without-the-law-platforms-and-existing-offences-handle-part-of-it">Without the law, platforms and existing offences handle part of it</h3>

<p>The baseline is the near future without the new offence. AI-based moderation
on platforms will improve anyway, EU platform regulation requires action on
illegal content, and the most serious harassment is already punishable as
stalking, illegal threats or defamation. The new offence is worth only the
harm that falls between these and that the law would prevent through
deterrence: harassment that neither frightens nor lies but humiliates and
obstructs, where each victim is encountered only once, and which is often
allowed under platform rules.</p>

<h3 id="fermi-estimate-roughly-0218-billion-a-year">Fermi estimate: roughly $0.2–18 billion a year</h3>

<p>Assume all wealthy democracies adopted such an offence.</p>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th>Factor</th>
      <th>Value</th>
      <th>Source</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>Cost of gender-based cyber violence in the EU</td>
      <td>€49–89 bn / yr ≈ $54–98 bn</td>
      <td>European Parliamentary Research Service 2021 (<a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_STU(2021)662621">EPRS</a>, annual basis: <a href="https://eige.europa.eu/newsroom/director-corner/building-safe-digital-spaces-women-and-girls-click-cyber-violence">EIGE</a>)</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Extension to all genders and in-person harassment</td>
      <td>× 1.5–2.5</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Extension from the EU to all wealthy democracies</td>
      <td>× 3–5</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Share of harm falling between existing offences and moderation</td>
      <td>5–15 %</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Deterrent effect of the law on that share</td>
      <td>2–10 %</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<p>Total harm from harassment would thus be roughly $240–1,200 billion a year.
As a sanity check on scale: in the United States, 41% of adults have
experienced online harassment and 25% more severe harassment
(<a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2021/01/13/the-state-of-online-harassment/">Pew 2021</a>).</p>

<ul>
  <li>Lower bound: $240 bn × 5% × 2% ≈ <strong>$0.2 bn / year</strong></li>
  <li>Upper bound: $1,200 bn × 15% × 10% ≈ <strong>$18 bn / year</strong></li>
</ul>

<p>The range is therefore roughly <strong>$0.2–18 billion a year</strong>. An
order-of-magnitude estimate, not a forecast.</p>

<h3 id="what-swings-it-most-whether-a-fine-deters-anyone">What swings it most: whether a fine deters anyone</h3>

<p>The deterrent effect swings the result most. A fine alone may not deter a
perpetrator whose channel earns more than the fine costs. That is why the
aggravated form and the commercial rule are the most important parts of the
draft in terms of value. Pulling the other way is the risk that an imprecise
provision would make people avoid legitimate criticism too. If the free
speech exception does not work in practice, the net value could fall to the
lower bound or below zero. The figure also excludes the cost of extra work
for police and courts.</p>]]></content><author><name>Leima</name></author><category term="en" /><category term="oikeus" /><category term="some" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[A draft offence for Finland: harassing hundreds of strangers once each on camera for views. Current law misses it. Criticism and satire are excluded.]]></summary></entry><entry xml:lang="en"><title type="html">The early adopter investment paradox: the service may disappear, the record should not</title><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/early-adopter-investment-paradox/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="The early adopter investment paradox: the service may disappear, the record should not" /><published>2026-10-03T04:11:12+03:00</published><updated>2026-10-03T04:11:12+03:00</updated><id>https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/early-adopter-investment-paradox</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/early-adopter-investment-paradox/"><![CDATA[<p>A new app often becomes useful only once it has gathered lots of data and
lots of users. The first users do that work: they enter their information,
learn how the thing works and trust that the effort will pay off one day. Yet
they are exactly the ones who lose the most if the app is shut down, because
their work stays locked inside a service that no longer exists. I propose
turning this around: the earlier someone joins, the less they should have to
invest, and the data they enter should be theirs, in an open format that
survives even if the service dies. My example is the records of a pet or
another animal: the service may disappear, the animal’s history should not.</p>

<h2 id="the-early-user-builds-the-service-and-carries-the-risk">The early user builds the service and carries the risk</h2>

<p>A service needs its first users’ time, data and trust to build its future
value. At the same time, those very first users carry the greatest risk that
their investment never pays off.</p>

<h3 id="user-value-is-benefits-minus-every-kind-of-input">User value is benefits minus every kind of input</h3>

<p>In a simple model, the value a user gets is:</p>

<div class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge"><div class="highlight"><pre class="highlight"><code>V_user = B₀ + Σ (t = 1…T) pₜ · Bₜ − (P + S + M + L + R)
</code></pre></div></div>

<p>where</p>

<ul>
  <li><code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">B₀</code> is the immediate benefit,</li>
  <li><code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">Bₜ</code> is the future benefit at time <em>t</em>,</li>
  <li><code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">pₜ</code> is the probability that the service is still usable at time <em>t</em>,</li>
  <li><code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">P</code> is the price of the service,</li>
  <li><code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">S</code> is the work spent on onboarding and entering data,</li>
  <li><code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">M</code> is ongoing maintenance work,</li>
  <li><code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">L</code> is the lock-in and switching cost and</li>
  <li><code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">R</code> is the provider continuity risk.</li>
</ul>

<h3 id="early-on-almost-every-term-works-against-the-user">Early on, almost every term works against the user</h3>

<p>In the early stage the immediate benefit <code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">B₀</code> is often small, the onboarding
work <code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">S</code> large and the continuity probability <code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">pₜ</code> uncertain. In practice the
user pays and works to build the service’s database before the service has
any meaningful network value.</p>

<h2 id="three-known-phenomena-in-one-user">Three known phenomena in one user</h2>

<p>The early-user penalty is the sum of three known phenomena:</p>

<div class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge"><div class="highlight"><pre class="highlight"><code>Early-user penalty = cold-start penalty
                   + relationship-specific investment
                   + provider continuity risk
</code></pre></div></div>

<ul>
  <li><strong>Cold-start penalty</strong>: the network is least valuable precisely to its
first users. Tech investor Andrew Chen has written a whole book on the
phenomenon, <em>The Cold Start Problem</em> (2021)
(<a href="https://a16z.com/books/the-cold-start-problem/">a16z</a>).</li>
  <li><strong>Relationship-specific investment</strong>: the data and work a user puts into a
service raise the value of that particular relationship and can increase
switching costs. The concept comes from transaction cost economics, where
such specificity exposes the investor to hold-up by the other party
(<a href="https://ideas.repec.org/h/elg/eechap/4136_12.html">IDEAS/RePEc</a>).</li>
  <li><strong>Provider continuity risk</strong>: the user carries the risk that the startup or
service will no longer exist when the data should be delivering its
greatest benefit.</li>
</ul>

<h2 id="the-earlier-the-user-the-smaller-the-investment">The earlier the user, the smaller the investment</h2>

<p>For early users we should do the opposite of what happens now: the earlier
the user, the smaller their investment should be.</p>

<h3 id="seven-ways-to-push-the-inputs-down">Seven ways to push the inputs down</h3>

<ul>
  <li>free basic use</li>
  <li>automatic data import</li>
  <li>an open, documented format</li>
  <li>complete export</li>
  <li>clear provenance for every piece of data</li>
  <li>user ownership and control of the data</li>
  <li>the death of the service does not make the record unusable</li>
</ul>

<p>Then the price <code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">P</code> approaches zero, the work <code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">S</code> shrinks, lock-in <code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">L</code>
approaches zero and the continuity risk <code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">R</code> shrinks. The service-specific
continuity probability <code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">pₜ</code> loses its importance, because the data keeps its
value elsewhere.</p>

<h3 id="the-investment-moves-from-provider-asset-to-user-asset">The investment moves from provider asset to user asset</h3>

<p>In a closed model, the user’s investment becomes the provider’s asset. In an
open model, it becomes a user-owned, portable asset. As a by-product, something
bigger emerges:</p>

<div class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge"><div class="highlight"><pre class="highlight"><code>many portable records → open data commons → network value
</code></pre></div></div>

<p>The network effect then rests not on lock-in but on compatibility.</p>

<h3 id="the-value-of-the-open-model-to-an-early-adopter">The value of the open model to an early adopter</h3>

<div class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge"><div class="highlight"><pre class="highlight"><code>V_early adopter = immediate utility
                + portable future value
                + network upside
                − minimal onboarding cost
</code></pre></div></div>

<h3 id="the-question-shifts-from-the-startup-to-your-own-record">The question shifts from the startup to your own record</h3>

<p>The user no longer has to ask: “Should I invest in this startup?” Instead
they ask: “Should I build a portable digital record of this thing for
myself?” If the answer to the second question is yes, whether the provider
still exists ten years from now becomes much less important.</p>

<h2 id="applying-it-to-animal-data-the-service-as-an-interface-to-the-owners-record">Applying it to animal data: the service as an interface to the owner’s record</h2>

<p>In an animal service, a user could</p>

<ul>
  <li>bring their own animal into the system,</li>
  <li>automatically fetch existing public data,</li>
  <li>add their own documents and information,</li>
  <li>see the origin of every piece of data,</li>
  <li>publish whatever they choose as open data,</li>
  <li>keep private documents hidden and</li>
  <li>export the animal’s entire history in an open format.</li>
</ul>

<p>The service then does not primarily “own the animal’s profile”; it acts as an
interface to a portable record that the user owns. The core line:
<em>The service may disappear. The record should not.</em></p>

<h2 id="novelty">Novelty</h2>

<p>I searched with terms such as <em>local-first software</em>, <em>user-owned portable
data</em>, <em>data portability</em>, <em>pet health record app export</em>, <em>animal health
data interoperability</em> and, in Finnish, <em>KoiraNet public health data</em>.</p>

<h3 id="the-principle-is-known-and-well-articulated">The principle is known and well articulated</h3>

<ul>
  <li><strong>Local-first software.</strong> The 2019 essay by Martin Kleppmann, Adam Wiggins,
Peter van Hardenberg and Mark McGranaghan sets out seven ideals, two of
which are the core of this idea: data survives even if the service is shut
down (“The Long Now”), and the user retains ultimate ownership and control
(<a href="https://www.inkandswitch.com/essay/local-first/">Ink &amp; Switch</a>).</li>
  <li><strong>Solid.</strong> In Tim Berners-Lee’s Solid protocol, users’ data lives in their
own “pod”, and applications are merely interfaces to it
(<a href="https://www.linode.com/docs/guides/introduction-to-the-solid-data-protocol">Akamai/Linode</a>).</li>
  <li><strong>Portability rights and tools.</strong> Article 20 of the EU’s GDPR gives the
right to receive the personal data you provided in a machine-readable format
(<a href="https://gdpr-info.eu/art-20-gdpr/">gdpr-info.eu</a>), and the Data Transfer
Initiative, backed by Apple, Google and Meta, builds transfer tools between
services (<a href="https://dtinit.org/blog/2023/03/28/launch">DTI</a>).</li>
</ul>

<h3 id="in-animal-data-the-pieces-exist-but-separately">In animal data the pieces exist but separately</h3>

<p>App stores are full of pet health diaries, and some offer export. Pasu, for
example, produces a PDF of the health history and a backup as a zip file, but
mentions no open structured format
(<a href="https://apps.apple.com/app/id6762033650">App Store</a>). Public animal data
exists too: the Finnish Kennel Club’s KoiraNet publishes individual dogs’
pedigrees, health screening results and trial and show results for anyone to
see
(<a href="https://dogwellnet.com/content/hot-topics/brachycephalics/finnish-kennel-club-to-add-walk-test-results-to-koiranet-db-r524/">DogWellNet</a>).
Continuity risk has also materialised: Tractive bought the Whistle pet
trackers from Mars, and Whistle devices stopped working at the end of August
2025
(<a href="https://www.invoxia.com/blog/petcare/tractive-acquires-whistle-dog-health-collar/">Invoxia</a>).
I found no information on whether users’ accumulated history survived the
transition.</p>

<h3 id="the-difference-is-the-combination-and-the-early-adopter-angle">The difference is the combination and the early-adopter angle</h3>

<p>I found no animal service that combines automatic fetching of public data,
the owner’s own documents, per-item provenance, a choice between public and
private, and full export in an open format. I searched the App Store, the
general web and sources on animal health data interoperability. The novelty
is therefore twofold: bringing local-first and Solid principles to the animal
record, and a framing in which portability is not just consumer protection
but specifically a way to remove the early-user penalty and to build network
effects on compatibility.</p>

<h2 id="theoretical-value">Theoretical value</h2>

<p>I estimate the value for animal data only. The general principle applies to
almost every service, but it cannot be reduced to one sensible number.</p>

<h3 id="without-the-idea-ai-handles-data-entry-but-not-disappearance">Without the idea, AI handles data entry but not disappearance</h3>

<p>In the next few years AI will make reading vet PDFs, vaccination certificates
and invoices almost automatic, so the onboarding work <code class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge">S</code> shrinks anyway. In
the EU the right to export is already law. What remains without the idea is a
problem AI does not solve: when a service shuts down or the user switches,
the accumulated history disappears or is left as a pile of PDFs that no other
service understands. The idea’s value comes from this difference.</p>

<h3 id="fermi-estimate-roughly-15420-million-a-year">Fermi estimate: roughly $15–420 million a year</h3>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th>Factor</th>
      <th>Value</th>
      <th>Source</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>Pet-owning households in the US (2025)</td>
      <td>94 million</td>
      <td><a href="https://www.petfoodindustry.com/pet-ownership-statistics/article/15747936">Pet Food Industry / APPA</a></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Pet-owning households in Europe (2024)</td>
      <td>140 million</td>
      <td><a href="https://europeanpetfood.org/about/statistics/">FEDIAF</a></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Share keeping the animal’s records in a service</td>
      <td>5–20%</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Share whose service ends or who switch per year</td>
      <td>10–20%</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Time wasted re-collecting records</td>
      <td>1–3 h</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Value of time</td>
      <td>$20/h</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Effect of AI on wasted time without the idea</td>
      <td>−50%</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Losses leading to an unnecessary repeat test or vaccination</td>
      <td>5–10%</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Cost of a repeat</td>
      <td>$50–150</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<ul>
  <li><strong>Users:</strong> 234 million × 5–20% ≈ 12–47 million households.</li>
  <li><strong>Losses per year:</strong> 12–47 million × 10–20% ≈ 1.2–9.4 million cases.</li>
  <li><strong>Time:</strong> 1.2–9.4 million × 1–3 h × $20 × 50% ≈ $12–280 million.</li>
  <li><strong>Unnecessary repeats:</strong> 1.2–9.4 million × 5–10% × $50–150 ≈ $3–140 million.</li>
  <li><strong>Total:</strong> roughly <strong>$15–420 million a year</strong>.</li>
</ul>

<p>This excludes the network value of an open data commons, such as research
use, which I could not estimate credibly. This is an order-of-magnitude
estimate, not a forecast.</p>

<h3 id="what-moves-it-most-is-how-many-people-keep-records-in-a-service">What moves it most is how many people keep records in a service</h3>

<p>The range spans more than a factor of ten mainly because I found no figure
for how many pet owners use a separate health record service. The other big
factor is the baseline: if vet chains’ own portals and the EU export right
cover most of the history anyway, the idea’s added value falls to the low end
of the range.</p>]]></content><author><name>Leima</name></author><category term="en" /><category term="talous" /><category term="commons" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[Early adopters build a service's value but lose the most when it dies. Proposal: ask less of them up front and let them own their data in open formats.]]></summary></entry><entry xml:lang="en"><title type="html">The wall bed gap should be closed by design, not just by rules</title><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/the-wall-bed-gap-should-be-closed-by-design/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="The wall bed gap should be closed by design, not just by rules" /><published>2026-10-03T04:05:44+03:00</published><updated>2026-10-03T04:05:44+03:00</updated><id>https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/the-wall-bed-gap-should-be-closed-by-design</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/03/the-wall-bed-gap-should-be-closed-by-design/"><![CDATA[<p>In many Finnish daycare centres, children take their naps in beds that are
folded up against the wall at the end of the day, a bit like the door of a
cupboard. In spring 2026 in Vantaa, nobody noticed that one child was still
asleep in a bed as it was being raised. The child slid into the gap between
the bed and the wall and died. So far the response has been twofold: staff
are instructed not to raise the beds while children are present, and the
most dangerous models are being replaced. I propose a third option: close the
gap itself with a flexible fabric that can hold a child’s weight and moves
with the bed. Then a single adult’s momentary mistake would no longer be
enough to cause an accident.</p>

<h2 id="what-happened-in-vantaa-and-what-followed">What happened in Vantaa and what followed</h2>

<p>According to the Safety Investigation Authority (Otkes) and news reports,
staff at the daycare centre began raising the wall beds after nap time, and
nobody noticed that one child was still in bed. The investigation found no
mechanical defect in the bed, but Otkes concluded that wall beds pose a
serious safety risk that had not been identified in daycare settings
(<a href="https://yle.fi/a/74-20217443">Yle</a>). The two-year-old child later died in
hospital (<a href="https://yle.fi/a/74-20218931">Yle</a>).</p>

<p>The core of the risk is the structure. According to news reports, the bed’s
mechanism allows a child lying in it to slide into the gap between the bed
and the wall as the bed is raised, after which the bed’s position can no
longer be changed
(<a href="https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/juuri-nyt-vantaa-poistaa-paivakotiensa-vaaralliset-sangyt-kaytosta/9351670">MTV Uutiset</a>).
It was not the only case: the Finnish Safety and Chemicals Agency (Tukes) has
compiled five cases from 2015–2025, three in which a child was caught between
the bed and the wall and two involving fingers in the hinges, with beds from
different manufacturers (<a href="https://yle.fi/a/74-20217619">Yle</a>).</p>

<h3 id="vantaa-did-not-remove-all-its-beds-only-the-risky-models">Vantaa did not remove all its beds, only the risky models</h3>

<p>The most interesting detail is Vantaa’s own review. The city went through
more than 12,000 beds and about 15 bed models. Most were judged to carry no
serious risk even if a child were accidentally in the bed while it was
raised. Only the models with the risky structure are being replaced, at an
estimated cost of about €220,000 (<a href="https://yle.fi/a/74-20230874">Yle</a>).
Helsinki, by contrast, is giving up all 1,447 of its wall beds in 99 daycare
centres
(<a href="https://www.sttinfo.fi/tiedote/72306958/helsinki-luopuu-paivakodeissa-kaappisangyista">STT Info</a>).
At the same time, the official line has emphasised correct use: beds are
opened and closed only when no children are in the room
(<a href="https://yle.fi/a/74-20218306">Yle</a>).</p>

<p>Vantaa’s finding says the danger is not in wall beds as such but in a
particular structure. And if the danger is in the structure, the structure
can also be fixed.</p>

<h2 id="the-idea-physically-close-the-gap-with-a-flexible-barrier">The idea: physically close the gap with a flexible barrier</h2>

<p>If the dangerous chain of events is specifically that a child slides over
the mattress or the end of the bed into the gap between the bed and the
wall, a structural fall barrier could break the chain entirely.</p>

<h3 id="a-cargo-net-is-the-right-thought-but-the-wrong-product">A cargo net is the right thought but the wrong product</h3>

<p>The idea started from an ordinary cargo net. As such, it would not be the
best solution: a loose or wide-mesh net could create new risks of snagging,
strangulation or trapped limbs. Designed for the purpose, though, the same
idea is interesting. Options would be a very tight, fine-mesh safety net or,
preferably, a flexible continuous fabric or panel that covers the whole
dangerous gap and can hold a child’s weight.</p>

<h3 id="the-barrier-must-be-taut-pocket-free-and-move-with-the-bed">The barrier must be taut, pocket-free and move with the bed</h3>

<p>The barrier has three requirements. It must not form a pocket a child could
sink into. It must not get in the way of raising the bed. And it must work
every time without anyone having to remember anything. One implementation
would be a taut safety fabric attached to the bed, running between the end
or edge of the bed and a wall fixing, moving with the bed. It could be
retrofitted to the risky models.</p>

<h3 id="human-error-should-not-be-enough-for-a-catastrophe">Human error should not be enough for a catastrophe</h3>

<p>The question can be put like an engineer: why not fit the risky model with a
retrofittable fail-safe structure that makes getting into the gap between
the wall and the bed physically impossible? This is a classic problem: don’t
try to stop people from making mistakes, design the machine so that a
mistake does not lead to catastrophe. Instructions and supervision are
needed, but they rely on a busy adult noticing a child sleeping under a
blanket every single time.</p>

<h2 id="why-the-original-designer-did-not-account-for-this">Why the original designer did not account for this</h2>

<p>I did not find a direct answer to this, so what follows is my own reasoning
based on public information.</p>

<h3 id="the-bed-was-designed-to-be-raised-empty">The bed was designed to be raised empty</h3>

<p>The wall bed is originally a space-saving solution for the home, where an
adult raises their own, empty bed. The European standard EN 1129-1 covers
specifically the safety of the folding mechanism of foldaway beds, not the
bed’s other uses
(<a href="https://genorma.com/en/standards/pren-1129-1-rev">Genorma</a>). From the
mechanism’s point of view, what matters is that the bed does not fall or hit
the user. A situation where a small child is inside the bed at the moment it
is raised falls outside that way of thinking.</p>

<h3 id="at-a-daycare-centre-the-use-case-is-different">At a daycare centre, the use case is different</h3>

<p>At a daycare centre, one adult may raise many beds in a row, the children are
small and hard to see under blankets, and raising the beds is routine. The
same product moved into an environment where a mistake is far more likely,
but its structure stayed that of a home bed.</p>

<h3 id="rare-near-misses-never-piled-up-on-anyones-desk">Rare near misses never piled up on anyone’s desk</h3>

<p>The cases known to Tukes were spread over ten years, different cities and
different manufacturers, and Tukes took no action based on them
(<a href="https://yle.fi/a/74-20217619">Yle</a>). When a single manufacturer sees at
most one case every few years, the risk looks theoretical. According to
Otkes, the hazard had not been identified in daycare settings.</p>

<h2 id="novelty">Novelty</h2>

<p>I searched for counterparts in Finnish and English with search terms such as
<em>kaappisänky turvallisuus lisävaruste</em> (wall bed safety accessory), <em>wall
bed child entrapment</em>, <em>murphy bed safety interlock</em>, <em>bed wall gap
entrapment barrier</em> and <em>hospital bed gap filler</em>. The closest counterparts:</p>

<ul>
  <li><strong>Entrapment zones in hospital beds.</strong> In 2004 the US Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) published draft guidance naming seven zones of a
hospital bed where a patient can become trapped. It was based on 575
reported cases over 19 years, 358 of them fatal
(<a href="https://infectioncontroltoday.com/view/fda-issues-guidance-hospital-bed-design-reduce-patient-entrapment">Infection Control Today</a>).
Measuring and filling gaps is thus established practice in healthcare,
but it applies to stationary beds, not ones that fold up.</li>
  <li><strong>The standard for children’s bed rails.</strong> Since 2012, the US Consumer
Product Safety Commission (CPSC) has required that a portable bed rail
must not create a dangerous gap with the mattress into which a child can
fall
(<a href="https://www.cpsc.gov/Newsroom/News-Releases/2012/CPSC-Adopts-New-Federal-Standard-for-Portable-Bed-Rails">CPSC</a>).
The principle is the same, but the object is different.</li>
  <li><strong>Locks on wall beds.</strong> In Quebec in 2024, a coroner called for locking
mechanisms on wall beds after a bed had opened onto a child
(<a href="https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/2106060/quebec-coroner-urges-canada-to-recall-murphy-beds-without-safeguards-after-death-of-5-year-old">Radio-Canada</a>).
That addresses the opposite hazard, the bed falling open, not sliding into
the gap.</li>
  <li><strong>Finland’s current approach</strong> is instructions for use and replacing the
risky models. Reporting on daycare guidelines mentions no technical add-ons
(<a href="https://yle.fi/a/74-20218306">Yle</a>).</li>
</ul>

<p>I did not find a product, standard or recommendation that closes the gap
between a fold-up wall bed and the wall with a barrier that moves with the
bed, nor a retrofit solution for the risky models. That is where the novelty
lies: the gap-closing principle familiar from hospital beds and children’s
products, transferred to a moving bed and offered as a retrofit, as an
alternative to replacing the whole bed.</p>

<h2 id="theoretical-value">Theoretical value</h2>

<h3 id="without-the-idea-the-risky-models-get-replaced-anyway">Without the idea, the risky models get replaced anyway</h3>

<p>A lot will happen in Finland in the coming years regardless: Vantaa is
replacing its risky models, Helsinki is giving up wall beds entirely, and
other municipalities have gone over their guidelines again. The baseline is
therefore a situation where the most dangerous beds have already been
replaced and the rest rely on instructions. The idea’s value comes from two
differences: a retrofit may be cheaper than a new bed, and the remaining
risk from human error shrinks.</p>

<h3 id="fermi-estimate-roughly-0225-million-per-year">Fermi estimate: roughly $0.2–2.5 million per year</h3>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th>Factor</th>
      <th>Value</th>
      <th>Source</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>Vantaa’s cost of replacing risky models</td>
      <td>approx. €220,000</td>
      <td><a href="https://yle.fi/a/74-20230874">Yle</a></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Children in early childhood education in Finland (2023)</td>
      <td>235,300</td>
      <td><a href="https://stat.fi/fi/tilasto/vaka">Statistics Finland</a></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Vantaa’s share of the national total</td>
      <td>4–6 %</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Retrofit savings compared with replacement</td>
      <td>30–70 %</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Replacement cost spread over</td>
      <td>10 years</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Slides into the gap before any action</td>
      <td>approx. 0.4 / year</td>
      <td>derived from the Tukes and Otkes cases</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Remaining risk after instructions and replacements</td>
      <td>10–30 %</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Share resulting in death</td>
      <td>10–25 %</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Value of a prevented death</td>
      <td>$3–4 million</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Multiplier for other countries</td>
      <td>1–5</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Euro to dollar rate</td>
      <td>€1 ≈ $1.15</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<ul>
  <li><strong>Cost savings:</strong> €220,000 / 5 % ≈ €4.4 million across Finland; 30–70 %
savings on that is €1.3–3.1 million, or about $0.15–0.35 million per year
when spread over ten years.</li>
  <li><strong>Safety benefit:</strong> 0.4 × 10–30 % × 10–25 % ≈ 0.004–0.03 prevented deaths
per year, or about $0.01–0.1 million per year. Serious injuries would come
on top of this; I did not estimate them separately.</li>
  <li><strong>Total:</strong> about $0.2–0.5 million per year in Finland, and with the
multiplier for other countries roughly <strong>$0.2–2.5 million per year</strong>.</li>
</ul>

<p>This is an order-of-magnitude estimate, not a forecast.</p>

<h3 id="what-moves-it-most-is-how-common-wall-beds-are-elsewhere">What moves it most is how common wall beds are elsewhere</h3>

<p>I found no data on how many fold-up beds are in daycare centres outside
Finland, so the last multiplier is a pure guess. The other big factor is the
baseline: if municipalities replace the risky models quickly anyway, the cost
savings stay small. In money terms, then, the idea’s value is small, because
the problem is rare and the baseline already fixes most of it. Its real
value is the principle: a single person’s mistake should not be the only
thing standing between a child and death.</p>]]></content><author><name>Leima</name></author><category term="en" /><category term="turvallisuus" /><category term="suunnittelu" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[A 2026 daycare death in Vantaa showed rules aren't enough. Proposal: close the gap between a wall bed and the wall with a flexible, child-safe fabric.]]></summary></entry><entry xml:lang="en"><title type="html">The personal comedy model</title><link href="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/01/personal-comedy-model/" rel="alternate" type="text/html" title="The personal comedy model" /><published>2026-10-01T04:45:00+03:00</published><updated>2026-10-03T04:01:14+03:00</updated><id>https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/01/personal-comedy-model</id><content type="html" xml:base="https://fxg55647.github.io/blog/en/2026/10/01/personal-comedy-model/"><![CDATA[<p>AI can already write jokes that people find genuinely funny. So far the
question has mostly been whether a machine can be funny. I ask a different
one: what happens when everyone has their own joke machine that learns from
every chuckle and every skip what makes them laugh, and immediately invents
the next joke just for them? Video apps already search existing content for
what you are likely to enjoy. This would make the content from scratch for
you, a bit like a comedian whose entire audience is you. That is why the
question is not only about entertainment but also about what happens to
shared humour and to how people behave.</p>

<p>AI-generated humour has been discussed surprisingly much. Yet one question
has received far less attention than the production of jokes itself:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>What happens to human behaviour and humour culture when a single person has
a practically unlimited amount of humour optimised for their own taste?</p>
</blockquote>

<h2 id="what-we-already-know-ai-can-be-funny">What we already know: AI can be funny</h2>

<p>There is already fairly strong research evidence that language models can
produce content people find genuinely funny.</p>

<ul>
  <li>In Gorenz and Schwarz’s 2024 study in <em>PLOS One</em>, jokes produced by
ChatGPT 3.5 were rated on average at least as funny as those written by
humans, and in some tasks funnier. The study also included a comparison
with headlines by The Onion’s professional writers: the model’s headlines
were rated on average as funny as the originals
(<a href="https://today.usc.edu/ai-jokes-chatgpt-humor-study/">USC Today</a>,
<a href="https://www.psypost.org/ai-outshines-humans-in-humor-study-finds-chatgpt-is-as-funny-as-the-onion">PsyPost</a>).</li>
  <li>In a 2025 study in <em>Computers in Human Behavior</em>, GPT-4o outperformed
humans at text-based humour, but not at image-based humour
(<a href="https://www.axios.com/2025/11/12/ai-humor-chatgpt-claude">Axios</a>).</li>
  <li>In 2026, researchers have systematically studied both joke generation and
whether a model can itself judge which joke works
(<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.09133">Sakabe et al., AAAI 2026</a>).</li>
</ul>

<p>The practical direction is clear too. A study published in 2026 in
<em>Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence</em> built a multimodal
system that generates six humour types (including puns, exaggeration,
absurdity and dark humour), automatically turns the jokes into short videos
with images and audio, and measures their success on real short-video
platforms
(<a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0952197626014909">ScienceDirect</a>).
An automated humour factory + distribution + feedback loop is already a
research topic.</p>

<h2 id="the-gap-who-is-the-humour-made-for">The gap: who is the humour made for?</h2>

<p>Most of the literature asks either <em>“Can AI be funny?”</em> or <em>“Can AI help a
comedian write?”</em>. Google DeepMind, for example, studied AI specifically as a
creativity tool for comedians: in workshops with twenty professional
comedians, the models of the time often produced clichéd material, although
the comedians saw potential in them as a tool
(<a href="https://deepmind.google/research/publications/a-robot-walks-into-a-bar-can-language-models-serve-as-creativity-support-tools-for-comedy-an-evaluation-of-llms-humour-alignment-with-comedians/">Mirowski et al., FAccT 2024</a>).</p>

<p>My question is different: not whether a machine can be funny, but what
happens when everyone has their own endless stream of humour tuned exactly to
their taste.</p>

<h2 id="the-technical-difference-from-tiktok">The technical difference from TikTok</h2>

<p>TikTok tries to find, among millions of existing videos, the next one you
will like. A generative system could work differently:</p>

<div class="language-plaintext highlighter-rouge"><div class="highlight"><pre class="highlight"><code>generate → show → reaction → update taste model → generate again
</code></pre></div></div>

<p>If the user reacts with, say, 😅 / 😂 / 💀 / skip / share, the model gets a
huge amount of very clean preference data. Within a few hundred rounds it
could perhaps learn a really fine-grained “humour profile”: you like context
switches but not puns; dark humour when it is absurd but not mere shock; a
certain rhythm; setup–punchline pairs of a certain length, and so on.</p>

<p>A recent finding makes the idea more interesting. In an AAAI 2026 study,
humans and language models did not judge humour the same way: the models
weighted novelty more, humans weighted empathy-related factors more
(<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.09133">Sakabe et al.</a>). In practice, then, “the
AI rates its own jokes” may not be enough — the user’s own laughter or
reaction is the more valuable signal.</p>

<h2 id="three-generations-joke-machine-endless-feed-and-personal-comedy-model">Three generations: joke machine, endless feed and personal comedy model</h2>

<p>I would distinguish three generations:</p>

<ol>
  <li><strong>AI joke generator</strong> — “make me a joke”.</li>
  <li><strong>Infinite AI comedy feed</strong> — an endless generated stream.</li>
  <li><strong>Personal comedy model</strong> — the system learns specifically what makes
<em>you</em> laugh and starts generating it in real time.</li>
</ol>

<p>The third is, to me, the genuinely new idea. At that point it is no longer
really a meme generator but a hybrid of a humour recommendation engine and a
generative model.</p>

<p>It could be quite a powerful “TikTok moment”: today’s recommenders search
for content. This one invents the next piece of content just for you.</p>

<h2 id="novelty">Novelty</h2>

<p>I searched for counterparts in research (arXiv, ACL Anthology, AAAI,
ScienceDirect) and in products, with search terms such as <em>personalized
humor generation</em>, <em>humor preference modeling</em>, <em>AI meme app learns your
sense of humor</em> and <em>AI generated video feed</em>. The closest counterparts:</p>

<ul>
  <li><strong><a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=mobi.ifunny">iFunny</a></strong>
advertises an algorithm that “learns your sense of humor”. However, it
selects existing, user-made memes — it is a recommender that predates
generation 3, not a generator.</li>
  <li><strong><a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/openai-announces-sora-2-ai-video-audio-app-rcna234753">The Sora app</a></strong>
(OpenAI, 2025) is a feed of AI-generated video with personalised ranking.
The content, however, is generated by users and the feed ranks it; it does
not generate the next video based on a single viewer’s reactions. Closest
to generation 2.</li>
  <li><strong><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.03103">Who Laughs with Whom?</a></strong> (Murakami et
al., 2026) shows that humour preferences split into user clusters and that
a model’s preferences can be steered toward a given cluster with persona
prompting. This is cluster-level, not real-time learning for an individual.</li>
  <li><strong><a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.00022">lmfaoooo, SemEval-2026</a></strong> (“Humor Is
an Audience”) models a target audience’s preferences as interpretable
humour features and uses them to select among generated candidates. It is
technically the closest, but the audience is a given target group in a
shared task, not an individual user in a continuous feedback loop.</li>
</ul>

<p>So the individual pieces exist: generation, cluster-level preference models,
generated feeds, and personalisation of existing content. I did not find a
product or study that combines them into a loop in which one person’s
reactions update their taste model and directly steer the generation of the
next joke. Nor did I find an established line of research on the post’s main
question — what unlimited personalised humour means for behaviour and humour
culture. The novelty lies precisely in this combination and in the framing
of the question, not in AI humour as such.</p>

<h2 id="theoretical-value">Theoretical value</h2>

<h3 id="without-the-idea-a-recommender-already-does-much-of-the-work">Without the idea, a recommender already does much of the work</h3>

<p>In the coming years, AI-generated humour will
fill feeds anyway: generated feeds like Sora become common, automated humour
factories (like the short-video study above) produce a huge content pool,
and current recommenders pick the best fit for each person from it. When the
pool is practically unlimited, a good recommender already approximates
personal generation to a large extent. The idea’s added value is only the
difference that content generated in real time for an individual brings on
top of this.</p>

<h3 id="fermi-estimate-roughly-036-billion-per-year">Fermi estimate: roughly $0.3–6 billion per year</h3>

<p>I measure it as ad-funded social media revenue, since that is
where higher engagement is realised:</p>

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr>
      <th>Factor</th>
      <th>Value</th>
      <th>Source</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td>Global social media advertising, 2026</td>
      <td>approx. $317 bn</td>
      <td>Statista forecast, via <a href="https://cropink.com/advertising-statistics">Cropink</a></td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Share that depends on time spent on humour content</td>
      <td>20–40 %</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td>Extra engagement compared with a recommender choosing from an unlimited generated pool</td>
      <td>0.5–5 %</td>
      <td>own assumption</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

<ul>
  <li>Lower bound: $317 bn × 20 % × 0.5 % ≈ <strong>$0.3 bn / year</strong></li>
  <li>Upper bound: $317 bn × 40 % × 5 % ≈ <strong>$6 bn / year</strong></li>
</ul>

<p>The range is therefore roughly <strong>$0.3–6 billion per year</strong>. An
order-of-magnitude estimate, not a forecast.</p>

<h3 id="what-moves-it-most-is-whether-a-general-pool-covers-individual-taste">What moves it most is whether a general pool covers individual taste</h3>

<p>The last factor decides it. If the generated pool is so large
that the recommender almost always finds a “close enough” joke, the
improvement stays near zero and the idea’s value narrows to the lower bound
or below. If, on the other hand, fine-grained individual taste (rhythm,
topic combinations, personal references) is something no general pool
covers, the difference could be clearly larger.</p>

<p>The estimate measures market value, i.e. engagement, not well-being. The
post’s main question — what happens to humour culture when everyone has
their own endless stream — falls outside this figure, and its sign could go
either way.</p>]]></content><author><name>Leima</name></author><category term="en" /><category term="ai" /><category term="huumori" /><summary type="html"><![CDATA[What happens when everyone has a personal AI comedian that learns exactly what makes them laugh? Novelty, a value estimate and effects on shared humour.]]></summary></entry></feed>